Critical Thinking – Part 2

This is the second article of a three part series titled “Critical Thinking”

On Part I of this series, we talked about how to dissect information . The second part of the series deals with probability. Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring. This approach is very important to critical thinking because it allows us to evaluate most statements. We do not want to predict the event, but evaluate the validity of the statement.

For example, a car dealer announces that every customer that visits him will get a zero percent loan for a car. How probable is that?

The car dealer wants people to come to his business. People will visit the car dealer if there is an attractive offer.  However, his offer requires further analysis. We know that not everyone can qualify for a good deal based on their credit. So the probability that everyone gets a zero percent loan is dependent on the customers. The truth is that not everyone will get a good deal. When evaluating information you have to assess what other variables or conditions come into play when statements are made.

THE GAME OF PROBABILITY

Probability in critical thinking is very powerful. The gambling industry feeds on the fact that many people disregard probability. If you have ever seen a roulette table, they have a screen showing you the history of the winning numbers. What is interesting is the tendency of people to make a pseudo-analysis based on the previous results to place their bets. The reality is that those numbers are irrelevant to the next winning number. You see, Roulette consists of thirty-eight numbers that you bet on. Regardless of the previous winning number, in the next round all the numbers will have the same chance (probability) of coming up as before.

At the end of the day, probability can cost you. It is important to evaluate who said what and how likely it is for it to happen. In the next and final installment of the series, we will discuss biases and how it affects an accurate assessment.

What other experiences come to mind that relate to probability?